Euribor 2026: A New Phase of Stability and Relief for Households with Variable Mortgages
The Euribor, the reference index used to calculate interest rates for variable mortgages in Spain, has started 2026 with a slight decline, marking the end of its upward trend in recent months. As of January, the Euribor stands at 2.246%, representing a 0.021-point drop from December and a more significant decline compared to January 2025, when it was at 2.525%. This movement indicates that the Euribor is entering a phase of stability, with moderate variations, and is far from the fluctuations that characterized the market three to four years ago.
According to Laura Martínez, Director of Communication and spokesperson for the mortgage comparator and advisor iAhorro, “After a 2025 in which the Euribor remained, with certain ups and downs, within a very narrow range, the beginning of 2026 reinforces the idea that we are in a new phase of normalization, with smooth and predictable changes in its values.” This behavior is largely influenced by market expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy, with official rates stabilized at around 2% and investors ruling out sudden movements in the short term.
The ECB’s Decision: A Key Factor in Euribor’s Evolution
The ECB’s next meeting, scheduled for February 5, will be crucial in confirming the current roadmap. As Martínez clarifies, “What is not foreseen in almost any case is a rate increase, since there are no compelling reasons for this: inflation remains relatively stable, and the rest of the macroeconomic indicators have not experienced significant changes in recent months.” This stability is expected to continue, with the Euribor responding to market expectations and the ECB’s monetary policy.
Moderate Discounts on Annual Reviews: A Relief for Households
The year-on-year fall in the Euribor has resulted in moderate discounts on annual reviews for variable mortgages. Although the adjustment is limited, the lower level of the index allows for monthly payments to be reduced by between 30 and 50 euros, depending on the outstanding capital and loan conditions. For example, a variable mortgage of 200,000 euros, with a 30-year term and a differential of 0.60%, would see its monthly payment reduced from 856.75 euros to 827.51 euros after the annual review, representing a saving of 29.24 euros per month or 350.89 euros per year.
Mortgages with Semiannual Review: A Different Scenario
In contrast, the scenario is different for those with semiannual reviews. The decrease in January does not compensate for the increases accumulated during the second half of 2025. As a result, many semiannual reviews result in slight quota increases. For instance, a mortgage of 200,000 euros would see its monthly payment increase from 808.98 euros to 828.73 euros, approximately 20 euros more per month.
A 2026 Marked by Stability: Predictions and Expectations
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, the consensus points to a Euribor with few relevant changes. As long as the ECB maintains a prudent strategy and inflation does not give surprises, iAhorro predicts the index should move within a range between 2% and 2.3%, with gradual decreases, but not returning to much lower levels. This environment will continue to condition the mortgage market, with mixed mortgages remaining attractive due to their balance between security and price.
According to Laura Martínez, “We do not expect large movements either in the Euribor or in mortgage offers. The key in 2026 will be to choose the type of mortgage well based on the profile and time horizon of each client.” For more information, visit Here
Images Credit: www.diariodeibiza.es